NFL 4-4, +7.64 Units: Better Bets HQ, Last 7 Days
Our NFL card carried the week: 4-4 on graded picks, +7.64 units, +44.9% ROI.
Across every sport we posted (2026-09-08 to 2026-09-14), the book finished 12-16, -3.49 units. Full breakdown below, then where the NFL number came from.
By the numbers:
- Record: 12-16 (43% on graded picks)
- Net result: -3.49 units
- ROI on risked units: -7.4%
- Best day: Sept 13 (3-3, +6.89 units)
- Biggest single win: Over 49.5 (Saints/Lions), 5 units (-115) for +5 units
Sport by sport:
- NFL: 4-4, +7.64 units (+44.9% ROI)
- Baseball: 5-6, -3.49 units (-24.1% ROI)
- College Football: 3-6, -7.64 units (-49.3% ROI)
The NFL card, pick by pick:
- Over 49.5 (Saints/Lions), 5 units (-115): W, +5 units
- Over 44.5 (Bills/Texans), 4 units (-110): W, +4 units
- 49ers +3.5, 2 units (-110): W, +2 units
- Patriots +3.5, 1.5 units (-120): W, +1.5 units
- Lions -7, 1 unit (-105): L, -1.05 units
- Cowboys -3, 1 unit (-108): L, -1.08 units
- Dolphins +3, 1 unit (-108): L, -1.08 units
- Over 47.5 (49ers/Rams), 1.5 units (-110): L, -1.65 units
4 wins, 4 losses, and the card still returned +7.64 units. That is unit sizing doing the work: our two largest NFL plays of the week (5 units and 4 units) both landed, and no losing play was sized above 1.5 units. Hit rate is not the number that pays. Stake discipline is.
One we'd take back:
LSU -34.5, 5 units (-110). LSU led 45-7 in the fourth quarter, comfortably past the number, before Louisiana Tech scored late. Final: LSU 45, Louisiana Tech 14.
Had that one gone our way, the week is +7.01 units, a 10.5-unit swing on a single play.
Why our members keep coming back:
- Multiple plays per day across the sports in season
- Every pick is unit-sized so you know exactly how much to risk
- Free pick is public daily, the rest goes to members only
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8-8, +2.18 Units: Better Bets HQ, College Football, Sept 3 to Sept 7
8-8, +2.18 units. That's how the last stretch played out at Better Bets HQ (2026-09-03 to 2026-09-07).
By the numbers:
- Record: 8-8 (50% on graded picks)
- Net result: +2.18 units
- ROI on risked units: +5.4%
- Longest win streak this stretch: 4
- Best day: Sept 4 (2-0, +6 units)
- Biggest single win: Miami (FL)/Stanford OVER 46.5, 5 units (-110) for +5 units
One we'd take back:
Missouri -56, 4 units (-109). Up 40-0 at halftime and needing 17 more points across the second half, they went scoreless in the third. Final: Missouri 54, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14.
Had that one gone our way, the week is +10.54 units, an 8.36-unit swing on a single play. The rest of the card carried.
Why our members keep coming back:
- Multiple plays per day across the sports in season
- Every pick is unit-sized so you know exactly how much to risk
- Free pick is public daily, the rest goes to members only
Want next week's plays in your inbox? Join the membership: https://betterbetshq.com/#packages
6-5, +1.74 Units: Better Bets HQ, Weekend of August 7-9
6-5, +1.74 units. That's how the last stretch played out at Better Bets HQ (2026-08-07 to 2026-08-09).
By the numbers:
- Record: 6-5 (55% on graded picks)
- Net result: +1.74 units
- ROI on risked units: +9.9%
- Longest win streak this stretch: 4
- Best day: Aug 7 (3-2, +3.49 units)
- Best sport: Baseball (6-5, +1.74 units)
- Biggest single win: Braves ml, 2.5 units (+128) for +3.2 units
One we'd take back:
Guardians ml, 2.5 units (-125). Final: White Sox 6, Guardians 3.
Had that one gone our way, the week is +7.36 units, a 5.62-unit swing on a single play. The rest of the card carried.
Why our members keep coming back:
- Multiple plays per day across the sports in season
- Every pick is unit-sized so you know exactly how much to risk
- Free pick is public daily, the rest goes to members only
Want next week's plays in your inbox? Join the membership: https://betterbetshq.com/#packages
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Three Years of NFL Preseason Picks, +0.1 Units. Here’s Why We Still Post Them.
Here are our NFL preseason numbers, all of them, before you read another word.
- 2023: 9-10, down 1.4 units
- 2024: 10-7, up 1.2 units
- 2025: 9-7, up 0.3 units
- Three years: 28-24, up 0.1 units
Fifty-two picks. Three preseasons. One tenth of a unit. That is not a brag. That is a rounding error, and it is exactly the point.
The formula doesn't work in August
Our model is built to project how games actually get played. It works in the NFL regular season. It works in college football. It works in the other sports we cover. It does not work in the preseason, and we are not going to pretend otherwise to sell you something.
The reason is simple: preseason coaches are not trying to win the game. They are trying to get through it.
We are not going to open up the recipe here, but the biggest inputs we lose are the ones tied to play calling and substitution patterns, and those two things drive our projected scoring more than anything else. In the regular season, the end of a game is the most predictable part of it. Teams behave in ways you can model. A team down six with two minutes left...
38-38, -0.98 Units: Better Bets HQ, July 2026
38-38, -0.98 units. That's how the last stretch played out at Better Bets HQ (2026-07-01 to 2026-07-31).
By the numbers:
- Record: 38-38 (50% on graded picks)
- Net result: -0.98 units
- ROI on risked units: -0.8%
- Longest win streak this stretch: 6
- Best day: July 28 (3-0, +5.04 units)
- Biggest single win: Rays ml, 3 units (+140) for +4.2 units
Why our members keep coming back:
- Multiple plays per day across the sports in season
- Every pick is unit-sized so you know exactly how much to risk
- Free pick is public daily, the rest goes to members only
Want next week's plays in your inbox? Join the membership: https://betterbetshq.com/#packages
11-10, +6.05 Units: Better Bets HQ, Last 7 Days
11-10, +6.05 units. That's how the last stretch played out at Better Bets HQ (2026-07-20 to 2026-07-26).
By the numbers:
- Record: 11-10 (52% on graded picks)
- Net result: +6.05 units
- ROI on risked units: +18.6%
- Best day: July 22 (2-0, +4.5 units)
- Best sport: Baseball (11-10, +6.05 units)
- Biggest single win: Rays ml, 3 units (+140) for +4.2 units
One we'd take back:
Astros/White Sox over 8.5, 2.5 units (-110).
Had that one gone our way, the week is +11.3 units, a 5.25-unit swing on a single play. The rest of the card carried.
Why our members keep coming back:
- Multiple plays per day across the sports in season
- Every pick is unit-sized so you know exactly how much to risk
- Free pick is public daily, the rest goes to members only
Want next week's plays in your inbox? Join the membership: https://betterbetshq.com/#packages